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ALconsulting.jpg (27790 bytes) What has happened to the post-election rally?

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The Edge 
(obviously; past issues are also available from them)
Excerpts are obtainable from....


Original manuscript may be obtainable from the writer....
The Charts...

Chart 1a

Chart 1b

Chart 1c

Chart 2a

Chart 2b

Chart 2c

Chart 2d

Chart 3a

Chart 3b

Chart 4







 This article is not featured as an online
 article in the -
 as it was published under the Special
 Report category (accessible only to


Date Mon, 24 May 2004
17:14:28 +0800
From Param Gill
Subject Re: My Article in The
EDGE this week....

Hi Arifin,
Read your article on the Edge and
found it very interesting and I do agree
that the market is poised to move in
June 04.

Param Gill












Date Wed, 9 Jun 2004 18:41:07 +0800
From Tan Kay Wee <>Add to contacts
To arifin34@catcha.comAdd to contacts
Subject Re: Re: My story on this week's The EDGE...
I believe that the run-up prior to the actual elections had already 
priced in most of the positives in the economy. Once the elections 
took place and players digested the much expected results, they locked 
in their profits and left. Like you said, other factors matter now 
(like the new Exchequer, etc).
Hey, we are a small market in the overall scheme of things, a boat 
(but better than a sampan, I guess) in the ocean. Hedge funds can play 
us around.
That's why the restructuring of the GLCs is an important step in the
maturity of our market. Anyway, it's hard to hold just one event (ie
elections) and assess its impact - we get a cocktail of other factors 
now (oil prices, China etc).

Your ARIMA and Census X-11 Models sound interesting... that's what 
I like about you academics, always learning and tinkering around with 
new (or old?) tools. Malaysia should encourage cross fertilization of 
ideas between academia and the private sector. Have you considered 
joining the fund management industry? Can you enlighten me a little on 
how your models work (just the brief basics)?


PS1-Just wondering if you give any technical analysis talks. It'd be 
good to network with other charting "kaki", plus exchange of ideas.

PS2-Do you have/know where to get, pre-1987 (up to 1977) KLCI data?

----- Original Message -----
From: <>
To: "Tan Kay Wee" <>
Sent: Wednesday, May 26, 2004 7:11 PM
Subject: Re: Re: My story on this week's The EDGE...

> Dear Tan,
> I have a story in this week's The EDGE. Do have a look & comments
> please. TQ
> arifin
Date Mon, 24 May 2004 14:35:52 +0800 (SGT)
Subject My Article in The EDGE this week....
Dear Sirs/Madams,

I know that when markets are in a bad shape people tend to shy 
away from buying biz/investment weeklies... (that includes me) so 
this is to remind that do catch hold of this week's The EDGE.

Sdra Azam has slotted in my article under Special Report in this 
week's The EDGE... "What has happened to the post-election 
rally?" - please have a look and comments welcomed.

All the best & Happy dabbling in shares (b4 June ends!).


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